by F. Lempérière (HydroCoop) – February 2015
The suggestion below is based upon “A new presentation of energy data” as annexed, upon proofed technologies, and usual hypotheses for population growth and relevant energy needs.
Some data may be underlined:
– Presently 7 billion people have as average a yearly income of 9 000 $ and emit 5 t of CO² per capita. But 3 billion people in North countries (including China) have an income and CO² emission per capita fivefold these of 4 billion of South countries where most people emit less than 2 t of CO².
– For limiting reasonably the climatic change, the CO² emission should be halved in 2050, i.e. to 2 t of CO² for 9 billion people.
– This is possible if investing in renewable energies (essentially in Solar, wind and hydropower), about 0,7% of the world income between 2020 and 2050, i.e. in 2020 for a global income close to 60 000 billion $ an investment of 400 billion $. These 400 billion $ will be partly balanced by the savings in fossil fuels utilization; the remaining extra cost, possibly 200 billion $ should be for half in North countries, for replacing fossil fuels and half in South countries for development with minimal CO² emission. It is difficult and unjustified to ask this effort from South countries and a technical and financial help of 100 billion $ per year from North countries is necessary (30 $ per capita).
This may be the basis of a World Agreement:
Suggestion for a World Agreement on Climate Change
- Each country will limit in 2050 its CO² emission to 2 t/capita.
- Accordingly each country will devote at least a percentage A (for instance 0,5%) of its income to investments in renewable energies at home.
- Countries emitting more CO² than the world average will devote an amount B (for instance 5 $) per t of CO² in excess of the world average for investments of renewable energies in countries emitting less than average.
- In addition, countries having an income per capita higher than the world average will devote a percentage C (for instance 0,2%) of their income in excess of the world average for investments of renewable energies in countries under the average income.
- This would apply from 2018. Values A, B, C, initially chosen in 2015, could be reviewed in 2030.
The Agreement is based upon investments in renewable energies, CO² emission and income per capita which may be well known. A part of the commitments could be devoted to investments for energy savings but their evaluation may be more difficult.
Alternative agreements could be upon reductions of energy but are questionable because it is difficult to ask a reduction of energy from 3 billion people who emit less than 2 t of CO² and there is no reason to prevent industrialized countries from increasing their total energy by renewable if they reduce also the fossil fuels utilization. And the criteria of Final Energy or Primary Energy are questionable and do not represent well the Energy Really Used or the CO² emission.
Nuclear investments may be, or may not be accepted as renewable energy. It may be acceptable to take in account a part of their value such as 50%.
The total yearly investment may reach in some industrialized countries 0,5% of their income at home and 0,3% abroad, which may appear high but will be partly balanced by less fossil fuels costs. The investments at home may be by private companies and government guarantees of a price of renewable kWh. The investment abroad may be by agreements between one North and one South country with soft loans for equipment supplied by the North Country.